Last week in Pune, friends wanted me to share my experience and thoughts on india-china relationship in the context of recent incursion in ladakh and premier li’s india visit. some friends who couldn’t come wanted me to upload the power point presentations. here’s an excerpt of those two talks with some photographs. each talk was of an hour followed by 30-45 mins of interaction.
CHINA’S EXPANSIONISM AND ITS EFFECT ON THE WORLD
SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEA DISPUTES
CHINA HAS DISPUTES WITH ALMOST ALL COUNTRIES AROUND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, EAST CHINA SEA
GULF OF TONKIN: CHINA AND VIETNAM
NATUNA ISLANDS: INDONESIA, CHINA, TAIWAN
SPARTLY AND PARACEL ISLANDS: PHILIPPINES, VIETNAM, MALAYSIA, TAIWAN AND CHINA
SENKAKU ISLANDS: JAPAN AND CHINA
SOUTH CHINA SEA
• CHINA IS STAEDILY PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES AND KEEPING ALMOST ALL NEIGHBOURS OFF-BALANCE
• VIETNAM, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES ALL HAVE ISSUES WITH CHINA’S EXPANSIONIST DESIGNS
RICH IN MINERALS AND OIL, STAKES ARE HIGH IN S. CHINA SEA WATERS
INDIA HAS BACKED DOWN FROM EXPLORING OIL
PHILIPPINES AND VIETNAM CONTINUE TO SPAR WITH CHINA IN S. CHINA SEA
INDIAN GOVT PERFIDY
 |
| To my left Lt. Gen DB Shekatkar, one of my gurus |
• TILL MID-1950S CHINA HAD NEVER DISPUTED
INDIA’S BOUNDARY CLAIMS IN LADAKH
•HOWEVER FROM 1958 IT STARTED CLAIMING PARTS
OF AKSAI CHIN ON MILITARY GROUNDS
•BUILT ROADS, INFRASTRUCTURE, GARRISONS
•1959: IT WROTE A LETTER EXPLAINING WHY
•NEHRU SAID NOT A BLADE OF GRASS GROWS THERE
• CHINA WANTED FULL CONTROL OVER TIBET & XINJIANG & THEREFORE A CONNECTING ROAD
THE GROUND REALITY
CHINA HAS STEADILY PUSHED BOUNDARY WEST TOWARD SHYOK INCREASING PRESSURE ON SIACHEN
• DEPSANG , DBO ARE PART OF SUB-SECTOR NORTH
• THIS IS WEDGED BETWEEN AKSAI CHIN IN THE EAST AND POK IN THE WEST
• WEST OF KARAKORAM PASS AT POINT 6599, CHINA HAS CONTROL OVER TERRITORY CEDED BY PAK
• CHINA IS WORRIED ABOUT XINJIANG AND INDIA’S ACCESS TO CENTRAL ASIA THRU THIS SMALL PATCH
WHY DEPSANG
AROUND DBO THERE ARE TWO CRUCIAL AREAS: TRIG HEIGHTS AND BURTSE/DEPSANG PLAINS
•2005: 50 INTRUSIONS; 2009: 70 INTRUSIONS
•BUILT 5 KM ROAD FROM JAK II INSIDE INDIAN AREA
•2011: BUILT 30 KM ROAD INSIDE INDIAN AREA ALONG RAKKI NALLAH,
•2013:REINFORCED CLAIMS TO THE AREA BY PUTTING TENTS & FORCING INDIA TO STOP PATROLLING
(SOURCE: FORMER SPECIAL DIRECTOR IB, RN RAVI)
CHINESE APPROACH TO BORDERS
•CHINA HAS 14 LAND BORDERS & 8 MARITIME BOUNDARIES; ONLY RUSSIA HAS MORE Nos.
•BEIJING HAS SETTLED 12 OF THE 14 LAND BOUNDARIES EXCEPT WITH INDIA, BHUTAN
•SETTLEMENTS CAME AT THE TIME OF CHINA’S CHOOSING, WITH DECLINING NATION-STATES
•WITH INDIA, IT HAS KEPT UP THE PRETENCE OF ENGAGEMENT WITHOUT SUBSTANCE
•MANMOHAN SINGH HAS FOR THE FIRST TIME SAID BORDER DISPUTE IS A CORE ISSUE
 |
| In the audience Mrs Meghna &Air Marshal BN Gokhale, ex vice chief of IAF |
WHERE ARE WE AT THE MOMENT
•15 ROUNDS OF SR LEVEL TALKS CONCLUDED
WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS
•BOTH SIDES HAVE STUCK TO THEIR POSITIONS
• INCREASING ASSERTIVE CHINESE ROLE IN PAK-OCCUPIED KASHMIR IS A NEW ELEMENT
• CHINA KEEPS INDIA STRATEGICALLY ENGAGED IN TRADE BUT TACTICALLY OFF BALANCE
• INDIAN DIFFIDENCE STEMS FROM EVENTS OF 1962? CHINA’S SOUTH ASIA FOCUS
•STEADY INCREASE IN MILITARY AND DEVELOPMENT AID TO SRI LANKA EVEN AFTER END OF WAR
•LONG-STANDING RELATIONSHIP WITH BANGLADESH
•HAD HUGE INFLUENCE IN MYANMAR BUT SOME PROBLEMS CROPPING UP OF LATE
•IN NEPAL , SEVERAL CHINA STUDY CENTRES HAVE CROPPED UP ALONG INDIA BORDER
•MAKING INROADS INTO BHUTAN TOO
‘HIGHER THAN HIMALAYAS, DEEPER THAN THE INDIAN OCEEAN
•GWADAR’S HANDING OVER SIGNIFICANT
PREMIER LI ANNOUNCED NEW AIRPORT AT GWADAR, LINKS TO REST OF PAK
•UPGRADE OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY
•DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 MW HYDRO POWER PROJECT IN PAK-OCCUPIED KASHMIR •CHINESE SUPPLY OF MILITARY HARDWARE, FIGHTER JETS TO PAK CONTINUES
WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?
TRUST BUT VERIFY PRINCIPLE; CONFRONT CHINA ON UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTIONS, ISSUES
•INSIST ON MAP EXCHANGE; RENEW BORDER TALKS
•RAPID INFRASTRUCTURE BUILD UP, BEEF UP MILITARY WHEREWITHAL WITHOUT FANFARE
•BUILD A MORE POWERFUL NAVY
•PREPARE THE COUNTRY FOR EVENTUAL SOLUTION
•BUILD PARTNERSHIPS WITH CHINA’S ADVERSARIES, DO A REVERSE STRING OF PEARLS
May 26, 2013 -
Perhaps the best summarization of the Dispute and the way to cut the Gordian knot.It requires:A balanced understanding between the Civil and Military leadership so that effective measures can be taken; andEducating the Indian public not to get hysterical in its reaction to the ups and downs in India-China negotiations.Lastly, understand that it may take time to come to a mutually satisfactory agreement.